Forecast: Tablet App Sales To Hit $8B by 2015 v1.0

Summary

The web tablet app market will be a significant one in just a few short years, going from $183 million in revenue in 2010 to $8.2 billion by 2015. The overall momentum for this market will driven early on by the iPad and Apple’s app store, but over time other devices and app stores will also push the market. As with smartphones, web tablet mobile apps will see a growing percentage of ad-supported apps. However for this report, we only forecasted the revenue associated with paid web tablet app market.

Web tablet apps, as we have seen with mobile apps, will become a key way device owners discover, acquire and pay for new software and content. However, the app market for web tablets will have some significant differences from the mobile phone market, such as:

•  Overall, paid apps will have a higher overall average selling price (ASP) as more high-end games, productivity, education and other vertically focused applications are purchased for web tablets as compared to phones.

•  The ASP for paid tablet apps will be approximately $4.84 in 2010, and actually drift slightly higher over time. By comparison, average per-app average selling prices for mobile phones are approximately $2.

•  Consumers will download more apps on web tablets than they do on phones, and a higher percentage will be paid (though not by a huge margin).

The major trends driving growth of the web tablets app market are:

•  Growth of the web tablet category. Total web tablet shipments will go from 8 million total in 2010 to over 43 million web tablets shipped in 2015.

•  The introduction of the iPad. Apple’s ability to create excitement – and ultimately new customers – around exciting new products has been proven, and the iPad will constitute a big part of the overall web tablet hardware and app market.

•  A robust developer ecosystem. The developer ecosystem is light years ahead of just a few years ago, creating a big built-in advantage for application download and monetization relative to the launch of the iPhone.

Consumeradoption of mobile data plans and Wi-Fi, combined with their growing acceptance of mobile apps, will result in strong overall demand for web tablet apps.

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