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I’ve been ill and mostly in bed since Wednesday of last week. The few times I was actually online I picked up the tablet from my nightstand.
Apparently, I’m using the wrong device. According to a guest article on Re/Code, “our love for the tablet is dying.”
The thesis comes from Zal Bilimoria, a partner at Andreessen Horowitz. Simply looking at the tablet sales trend, which is up but with a slowing growth rate, it’s easy to suggest we’ve hit “peak tablet.”
But I don’t buy that for several reasons.
1. Unless there’s disruption ahead, we’re early in the product life-cycle
Any time you have a popular new product class, you can expect fast growth at first. It’s what I’d call the “easy growth,” and it’s what the tablet market has enjoyed since 2010. This is the result of early adopters and product buzz.
Additional growth is going to come from people who more carefully evaluate their budgets and need for a tablet. Some will instead hang on to their old computer a little longer or spend their money on a smartphone over a tablet because it provides nearly ubiquitous connectivity and is portable. For these people, tablets aren’t a necessity. They’re a luxury item, for lack of a better term.
That’s not out of the ordinary in any non-necessary technology product life-cycle that’s not even four years old yet. I’d argue that smartphones are more of a necessity due to their connectivity and voice communications support; that’s why smartphone sales continue to accelerate more than four years after their introduction. Note: There are some signs of a slowing growth rate for smartphones, at least at the high-end, seven years after the first iPhone.
With 361. 3 million tablets sold in the last two years alone according to IDG — Bilimoria suggests only 225 million tablets have been sold in the last three years — clearly there’s an established tablet market. For it to progress beyond the easy growth, it’s going to take time for mindsets to change about what computing is. Many tasks typically reserved for a traditional PC can be done on a tablet but not all are convinced. Chromebooks(s goog) face the same scrutiny from people who think computing can only be done on a computer.
2. Changes in mobile broadband pricing will help
Bilimoria rightly notes that most tablets sold are Wi-Fi-only devices. That’s been the case since the iPad launched, but relatively recent changes to mobile broadband services are likely to change that ratio. Take T-Mobile’s(s tmus) offer of 200 MB of free 4G data for life with a tablet as an example. No, you can’t do much with that amount of data but it comes in handy for emergency or limited uses.
I’ve bought at least a dozen tablets in the past several years — don’t chastise me: it’s my job — but nearly all of them were Wi-Fi models. This time around, I bought an iPad Air with LTE because of the free and inexpensive data. Instead of sitting at home with the other tablets, I take the Air with me nearly everywhere.
Here’s another example. When tablets with integrated mobile broadband launched, Apple shook up the market with pay-per-use pricing. You could purchase a few gigabytes of data for $30 or $50 and use it as needed; no contract required.
That model is still available but the advent of mobile share plans from the two largest operators in the U.S. made it even cheaper. In 2012, AT&T(s t) and Verizon(s vz)(s vod) created data sharing plans with the ability to add a tablet for $10 per month. With changes like this more consumers could opt for 4G tablets, which raises the value of the device thanks to everywhere computing.
3. The tablet app market is still in its infancy too
Hardware is only as good as the software available for it. And although Bilimoria is quick to focus on tablet sales growth slowing, the number of tablet apps has actually exploded. The initial iPad came with a dozen Apple titles specifically made for the tablet; most apps were scaled up iPhone applications. Fast forward to today and Apple says there are 475,000 iPad apps available.
Note: It’s difficult to pinpoint the number of Android(s goog) tablet apps since Google takes a different approach: Android developers can have their software scale up as needed for different screen sizes and resolutions.
The point is this: The PC software market has matured over decades to make PCs as useful as they are today. Yes, hardware capabilities have improved as well but it’s a circle. Improved hardware gives app makers more capabilities to take advantage of. Overlooking a growing tablet software market that started in April 2010 and is nearing a half-billion apps on one platform alone is short-sighted. Tablet applications will continue to improve and expand into uses we haven’t even envisioned yet.
4. Phablets v. tablets: An irrelevant distinction?
One of Bilimoria’s main takeaways is that phones are the bigger story here. As I alluded earlier, phones are likely more important to most people than a tablet is. So I agree, to a point. But this raises the question of whether a “phablet” is a large-screened phone or a tablet?
I’m inclined to say tablet, mainly because I noted the phablet trend early on. In 2012 I suggested that tablets would replace smartphones for many but not in the literal sense. I didn’t expect people to ditch a standard phone and replace it solely with a 10-inch slate for example. No, I was pointing out that smaller tablets in the 5 to 7-inch size could become primary devices in lieu of a smaller smartphone. And for some, they have.
My premise was that eventually, cellular voice calls would be supported in small slates, although you could argue these are just big phones. Indeed there are some recent examples: Nokia’s(s nok) Lumia 1520 and the Sony(s sne) Xperia Z1 Ultra come to mind. Both are 6-inches or larger and act as traditional cellular phones. And as we move towards greater adoption of VoIP and Voice over LTE services, the “phone” part of a smartphone becomes available on tablets.
Whether we call these phablets or tablets is semantics in my mind. They’re still devices that gain the benefits of a tablet: A larger screen for improved consumption and creation of content, applications optimized for touch and native connectivity that lets consumers compute and connect to the web as needed.
The tablet isn’t dead: It’s maturing and morphing
One of the most simplistic and beautiful aspects about tablets is that at first glance, they’re a blank slate. Literally. That means they can be anything we need to them to be: Cameras to capture and edit 1080p video, a blank page to create the next best-selling novel, the daily lesson in your child’s classroom or the pilot’s flight bag for your next cross-country plane trip.
To suggest that our love affair is over for a device with such potential is akin to divorcing your spouse because you think he or she won’t be an interesting life-parter five years from now. Whether talking about a person or a tablet, thinking forward to see if your partnership will grow is a smart strategy. And I suspect our love affair with tablets will only further blossom thanks to new apps well optimized for these very personal computing appliances.