Analyst predicts smartphone sales will slump in Q1, first time in two years

TrendForce smartphone decline Q1 2014

This might be the first quarter in two years to see a decline in worldwide smartphone shipments, according to TrendForce (and spotted by Re/code). That shouldn’t be cause for alarm for smartphone OEMs around the world, though. It just means the smartphone market might have matured enough to follow seasonal trends.

TrendForce smartphone decline Q1 2014

As you can see, smartphone shipments are expected to take a dip of 5.1 percent in Q1 of 2014, the first drop after a fairly steady rise over the last two years. That’s not terribly surprising. As smartphone penetration continues to increase worldwide, consumers are expected to buy less in the beginning of the year. This makes sense, given that many high-profile releases don’t often begin until the spring. And in many parts of the world, people tend to spend less after the holidays.

Once spring does kick into gear, however, it’s a steady climb back up, as smartphone shipments for the remaining three quarters are expected to eclipse those of the same periods in 2013.

TrendForce Market Share

Also notable in the study is a look at TrendForce’s data for smartphone market share in 2013. The chart above shows that Samsung captured the majority of the market, at 30 percent worldwide, while Apple came in second, at 19 percent.

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