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Based on adoption rates, iPad Air weekend sales may top 5 million

Apple(s aapl)hasn’t released any opening weekend sales figures for the iPad Air yet. However, early indicators suggest customers are snapping up the new tablet in record numbers. Mobile marketing company Fisku’s data shows iPad Air usage in the first three days of availability is triple that of the iPad mini and five times more than the iPad 4 during their first three sales days.

The company has a real-time tracker for this information here and, as of Monday morning, here’s what the information showed:

ipad air usage

Note that this data is solely gathered from apps that use Fisku and should be considered a general indicator that may not represent the market at large. Still, Fisku’s historical data of iPad usage — calculated by the same method —  appears reasonable. The company shows the current usage distribution for all iPads as:

  • iPad: 0.4%
  • iPad 2: 37.1%
  • iPad 3: 18.5%
  • iPad 4: 22.6%
  • iPad mini: 20.8%
  • iPad Air: 0.73%

I’m wondering if Apple releases data on the first weekend of iPad Air sales to see how it compares to last year. Apple touted 3 million first weekend sales of the iPad mini and iPad 4 last November. Based on the adoption rate data from Fisku, this year’s figure could be between 5 and 6 million iPads, given the combined 0.36% of iPad mini and iPad 4 usage last year, which is half that of this year’s model.

4 Responses to “Based on adoption rates, iPad Air weekend sales may top 5 million”

  1. Last year the Mini had shortages while the ipad 5 sold not that well. Out of the 3 millions it is likely that 1 mil was Mini , well under 1 mil ipad 5 and well over 1 mil ipad 5 inventory in the channel.
    This year 2 mil could easily be inventory in the channel but it also could be half that depending on supply. Actual sell-out can be 2-3 mil for a total of 3 to 5 mil shipped. In the end, point being, the numbers Apple will release can easily be manipulated in their favor. They can ship a million units 5 minutes before making the total, if supply allows it and a huge chunk of what is counted as shipped can be in the channel and in transit.