Statshot: How mobile data traffic will grow by 2016

6 Comments

6 Comments

David Mytton

It would be interesting to use this to estimate the cost of that data transfer on different providers because of the move away from unlimited packages to paid. Usage caps could also be an issue if they don’t increase proportionally.

Dave Wright

Om,

Yes, I realize they don’t break it out, but they do make the following forecast re: mobile offload to fixed (everything not macro cell):

“As a percentage of total mobile data traffic from handsets and tablets, mobile offload will be 31 percent (3.1 exabytes/month) in 2016, down slightly from 33 percent (72 petabytes/month) in 2011 (Figure 9). Total mobile data traffic from handsets and tablets will reach 6.9 exabytes/month by 2016, up from 145 petabytes/month in 2011. The percentage of traffic offloaded from tablets and handsets remains relatively flat over the forecast period.”

I think they were smoking something good when they wrote this. Mobidia’s statistics from actual smartphone use (http://www.informatandm.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Mobidia_final.pdf) inidcates ~70% of smartphone data traffic is going over Wi-Fi today. And you’ve seen the China Mobile data. Cisco is off by an order of magnitude on Wi-Fi offload today, never mind 4 years from now.

I also don’t understand how you can forecast a declining offload percentage (33% 2011 -> 31% 2016) when Carrier Wi-Fi, small cells, and Passpoint are all likely to increase macro cell offload during that period. Makes no sense to me.

Regards

ofentsel

Hmmm… Well data needs to be cheaper and cheaper just like it is on ADSL Uncapped Internet.

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