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It’s been five years since Amazon(s AMZN) CTO Werner Vogels first sat on the GigaOM Structurestage with Om. Instead of looking back, in their short chat they looked ahead at where the cloud industry and the major players would find themselves in the next five years.
Between now and 2017, Vogels predicted:
- AWS will be cheaper. Amazon will offer better pricing models, he promised. “If you look back, we’ve lowered pricing 20 times, so the best thing to look forward to is we’ll continue to do that,” said Vogels. “That’s at least our goal.”
- Young businesses will continue to proliferate. He cited Socialcam, Pinterest and Instagram as examples of relatively new companies that have been built on the cloud and scaled quickly, and said we should plan to see many more of these popping up. “Would they have been able to build that on traditional world of hardware and infrastructure? I would like to think not. We’ll see a lot of new young businesses buildng completely new things.”
- CIOs will give new guys a chance. “CIOs are willing to listen to new, young companies” when it comes to IT solutions, something the cloud has enabled, he said. “Five years ago they would only talk to big guys.” That’s going to continue to change.
- Old hardware companies will have to fight extinction. HP (s HPQ) and the other traditional hardware companies are going to have to adapt to survive, he predicted. “I do think that unless companies really take a new cloud mindset — not just a cloud in your offering but really be a partner to your customers instead of a vendor — and help them drive cost down” among other things, CIOs are going to look around at the young new companies cropping up everywhere. “I see CIOs willing to take way more risks now,” he said. “If dinosaurs aren’t changing, well we know what happened to dinosaurs.”