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Study: iOS set to win share as smartphones surge

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Apple (s aapl) is set to reap the benefits of increased consumer interest in smartphones, according to a new study by market research firm Yankee Group. A survey of 15,000 U.S. shoppers found that Apple and Google (s goog) will dominate, with Apple’s winning back share of the smartphone market over the next six months.

It is a trend that already appears to be in motion: Ryan Kim wrote about how, according to the latest NPD numbers, Apple’s iOS mobile platform made big strides in closing the gap between itself and Android in recent months. The Yankee Group survey anticipates that this will continue: While a quarter of those it surveyed already own an iPhone, 35 percent said they planned on getting one within six months’ time. The Yankee Group’s study echoes results from ChangeWave that we wrote about earlier, but it covers a wider user base, time period and focus on platforms instead of individual handset makers.

Android is and will remain strong in terms of consumer interest, according to the survey, but it won’t put any more distance between it and Apple. Nearly 40 percent of respondents indicated that they already own an Android device, but just the same amount said they planned on getting one within the next six months; in other words, Android won’t drop share to Apple if people stay true to their buying plans, but it won’t expand its current reach in the U.S.

The real losers, however, are the smartphone platforms that account for less than 20 percent of today’s market share, since, according to the survey, their percentage will only continue to slide. Yankee Group predicts that only 12 percent of respondents intend to buy a BlackBerry (s rimm) in the next six months, despite that 20 percent of those surveyed already own one. Interest in Windows Phone (s MSFT) devices similarly drops from a current high of 14 percent to only 9 percent’s intending to purchase one within six months’ time. Of course, this is based on consumer perception of the field as it stands: New devices, changes to software and pricing could always alter buying plans.

Overall, Yankee Group predicts that smartphone ownership should increase, since only 47 percent of those polled currently own one but 58 percent indicated intent to purchase one within the next six months. Yankee Group expects the smartphone market to surge to 175 million devices in the U.S. by 2015, up from 91.4 million as of Nov. 2011.

9 Responses to “Study: iOS set to win share as smartphones surge”

  1. samanthaedwards

    25% of those already own an iPhone, 40% already own an Android.
    and yet only 47% own a smartphone. are we supposed to believe that nearly 20% of the population owns both an iphone and an android device?

    PS take a look at history.. Apple has *never* made sales anything close to what these types of “what will you purchase” studies show. time after time they fall short. if they ever grow past their current ~18% or so of the market I’d be amazed. more likely they will continue their decline.

  2. There are three kinds of Lies – lies damn lies and statistics. Gigaom is an Apple fanboy site everyone knows this I dont doubt that they Cherry picked the “Statistics”. Thankfully most consumers are smarter than this and dont believe apple hype any more. The snartphone race has already been won…by Android apple will simply continue it’s slide into irrelevance

    • “everyone knows this”? Who is everyone, according to you?

      “apple will simply continue it’s slide into irrelevance”? That’s like saying Facebook will continue its slide into irrelevance.

    • msbpodcast

      Excuse him… He doesn’t believe that more than one product can exist at a time. Let his alone to play with his Kinâ„¢.

      Strange how all these car makers still exist though.

      All you need is ONE right? Because ONE SIZE FITS ALL, right? (I feel your pain dude. You were on the sidelines cheering when Henry Ford said “You can have it in any color you want, as long as its black…”)

      Apple is a larger company that any single Android maker. In fact its larger than several of them combined.

      It takes a hell of a lot to slide into irrelevance when you’re the second biggest corporation on earth with bigger cash reserves than the United States Federal government. :-)

      But he’ll be glowering and hating ll these newfangled contraptions.

      • Samsung employs around 220 000 employees. Apple employs around 60 000 employees. What is your metric to determine company size? Surely not market cap or profit….