The “quadrennial” events of the Olympics, the national U.S. political races, thew European Football Championship, along with the recovery of the Japanese economy, will help prop up ad spending in 2012 against the global financial pressures next year, says Publicis Groupe media shop ZenithOptimedia. Like a rising tide that lifts all boats, the flow of marketers’ money next year will also make its way online, which has already risen by healthy amounts since coming out of the downturn early last year.
In particular, ZenithOptimedia predicts global ad dollars will end this year at $464 billion, 3.5% higher than in 2010, then accelerate to $486 billion – a 4.7 percent gain – despite the continuing slowdown in Europe and fears that its debt crisis will get much worse. It then expects ad spending to grow 5.2 percent in 2013 and 5.8 percent the year after that.
Online spending will have risen 12 percent by the end of 2011, and then by 15 percent with 2012 is done. Not bad considering the debt crisis in Europe and the persistently high jobless rate in the U.S.
Share: Between 2011 and 2014 Zenith expects internet ads will make up 52.9 percent of the growth in total spending. As the largest segment, paid search will contribute 25.6 percent, followed by display at 22.6 percent, with classified at a much lower 4.7 percent. Overall, web ads will increase its share of the ad market from 15.9 percent in 2011 to 21.2% in 2014.
Previously, Zenith said that global ad spending would grow 3.6 percent in 2012, in a downward revision from its previous forecast of 4.1 percent in April. It also said online would rise 14.6 percent average annual growth between 2010 and 2013, as tougher times heighten the shift from traditional media spending.
Pretty much most of the leading ad forecasts think the media agencies and marketers have already factored in the economic problems into their analysis. As such, most of the agency analysts are betting on a rosier picture looking not only maintaining momentum, but outpacing it by 2013.
Here’s a rundown of recent forecasts:
— WPP’s GroupM expects global ad growth of 4.8 percent in 2011 and 6.8 percent in 2012, while online is set to rise between 15- to 16 percent a year through 2012.
— Barclays anticipates a 4 percent rise in ad dollars instead of a 5.2 percent in 2012. For online, spending will reach $29.9 billion, up 14.8 percent in 2011 and then gain 13.6 percent to end 2012 at $33.9 billion.
— eMarketer believes online will rise 20.2 percent this year and 17 percent in 2012.