Don’t Stop Believin': Studio Exec Still Bullish on 3D TV

3-d bark

We’ve been skeptical of the 3D TV market since it began in earnest early last year with a huge coming-out party at CES 2010. Well, it’s a whole year later, and despite some lowered forecasts for 3D TV sales, studios and consumer electronics manufacturers are still betting big that consumers will pony up for a “whole new dimension” of viewing in the home.

VP of Worldwide High-Def Marketing for Warner Home Video Kris Brown is unsurprisingly bullish on the technology. Unsurprising because, well, it’s his job to be bullish on new technologies for home distribution. That said, it was interesting to see the extent to which at least one studio exec sees 3-D as the future.

“3-D is an irreversible trend,” Brown told me during a phone interview. In fact, according to a recent study by consumer electronics industry group, 92 percent say 3-D is worth the extra money. And, according to Brown, “Once you see a demo, purchase intent doubles.”

Of course, there’s research from other sources that shows just the opposite reaction. A survey conducted by Nielsen last year found an interesting stat: The more exposure a consumer has to 3D TV, the less likely he is to say he’ll buy a TV set. And even though Nielsen is a big cheerleader for TV programmers in general, it had a difficult time spinning its most recent research on the technology: The title for its blog post, “Purchase Intent for 3DTV Varies Around the Globe,” completely whitewashes the fact that survey respondents in the U.S. overwhelmingly stated that they will not purchase a 3D TV in the next 12 months.

Part of Brown’s premise, that 3D TV will become pervasive, is simply the belief that the price premium between a 2D TV set and a 3D TV set will disappear over the next few years. Over the next 12 months, he believes the delta between prices will fall to between $100 and $300 for most HDTV sets, at which point the barrier to entry will be much lower for most consumers.

“What most consumers also don’t realize is that by the end of next year [that is, 2012], 50 to 70 percent of HDTVs will have 3-D technology,” Brown said. As a result, he suggests consumers future-proof their HDTV purchase now rather than waiting for the next time they buy a TV for the home. The argument is essentially that consumers’ friends and neighbors will be buying 3D TVs just as a matter of course, so better to keep up with the Joneses by getting a 3D TV before they do.

It’s a novel idea, but not one we think will necessarily catch on; now that the hype over Avatar has calmed down, Hollywood will need to reignite some interest in 3-D, not just in the home but in theaters. 3-D fatigue and the higher prices associated with the technology are scaring viewers away from movie theaters. Hollywood needs to figure that out before relying on more expensive technology and a premium price for 3-D Blu-ray or digital sales to boost revenues.

Photo courtesy of Flickr user bark.

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