One thing that strikes me as I read about cloud computing and other infrastructure trends is how fast they get characterized as ubiquitous, or as having reached their pinnacles, without being anywhere near those points. A prime example is a recent article on the rate of server virtualization — despite unending talk about VMware (s vmw) and hypervisors over the past several years, the reality is, educated estimates have virtual workloads still in the minority, and the percentage of virtualized servers even further behind. If we’re not there yet on virtualization, what chance is there that cloud computing or Green IT will be there within the next 12 months, or that something will convince Apple (s aapl) to open up? I’d say “minimal,” but I’m keeping my fingers crossed.
Here are my five predictions for what not to expect in 2011, with a few links apiece to provide context. For the full analysis on why I’m skeptical about these things happening in the coming months, read my full post at GigaOM Pro (subscription required).
1. Ubiquitous cloud adoption
- Apps vs. Ops: How Cultural Divides Impede Migration to the Cloud
- What’s Hindering Cloud Adoption? Try Humans.
- The Cloud in the Enterprise: Big Switch or Little Niche?
2. Amazon to announce its AWS revenues
- How Big Is Amazon’s Cloud Computing Business? Find Out.
- AWS Looks on Pace for That $500M in 2010
- Will Amazon Become the King of Cloud Hosting Too?
3. Apple to tell us anything about its data center operations
- Apple’s New North Carolina Data Center Ready to Roll
- Apple Should Open Its Kimono — Pronto
- Gizzard Anyone? Twitter Open Sources Code to Access Distributed Data
4. Legitimate progress on clean IT
- Cloud Computing — Net Loss or Gain for IT Energy Efficiency?
- Structure 2010 LaunchPad Presenter: Greenqloud, Iceland’s Clean Power Cloud Computing Co.
- Greenpeace to Facebook CEO: No More Coal
5. The demise of Intel
- Intel: Desperately Seeking Software (Margins)
- Can Intel and $50B in IT Budgets Achieve Open Clouds?
- Why Intel Is a Likely Winner of Tech Recovery
Image courtesy of Flickr user Bicycle Bob.
Related content from GigaOM Pro (sub req’d):