I read an interesting prediction today: By 2014, VMware will have split into an IaaS business and a PaaS business, and will have sold the former. If it sounds far-fetched, consider the atmosphere heading into VMworld. Competition on the IaaS front is coming hard and heavy — including today with Citrix buying VMLogix and HP building its own IaaS layer atop BladeSystem Matrix — and, soon, there won’t be much room for VMware to add value on this front. It might be much more valuable for a systems vendor (ahem, Cisco) to offer a top-to-bottom infrastructure stack than it will be for VMware to keep investing its resources trying to differentiate in a crowded software market. Are you convinced?