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Change In Nexus One Distribution Plans Prompts Lower Estimate On Google

Even though the price of clicks are trending a bit higher, Barclays internet analyst Doug Anmuth is lowering his estimates on Google (NSDQ: GOOG) after the search giant said it would stop selling Nexus One handsets in its online store. Barclays now is projecting that Google’s Q2 share price will drop from $6.57 to $6.49, while EBITDA heads south from $3.067 billion to $3.028 billion. Things still look good for Google over the next six months. For the full year, Anmuth is forecasting a 19.5 percent net revenue gain.

Although Google appears on a solid ground from a revenue standpoint, Anmuth points out that Google shares have underperformed since its Q1 earnings came out in mid-April. Specifically, shares have fallen 15 percent versus the S&P 500’s 9 percent drop. Among the reasons for Google’s relatively poor performance, Anmuth cites nearly a dozen.

Chief among them are investors’ concerns about search growth and Google’s its recent shopping spree, which includes the $750 million purchase of AdMob, the estimated $70 million for Invite Media and 17 other company acquisitions since August.

Investors are also worried about the lack of a second significant revenue driver beyond search, though Google argues that display is already a business in its own right. Beyond those uncertainties, there’s the competition with Apple (NSDQ: AAPL) and Facebook and the risk to mobile search from apps, along with lingering China, plus the ever-present regulatory scrutiny.