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Solyndra’s revenue ramp up last year was pretty mind boggling — the thin film solar maker went from generating $6 million in revenues in 2008 to $100 million in revenues in 2009. What will that mean when it finally plans to IPO later this year? According to a report from Next Up! Research posted on the marketplace run by startup SharesPost, Solyndra’s production and sales growth could lead to a market cap of between $1.76 and $2 billion.
Market capitalization is the size of a public company equal to the share price times the number of shares outstanding, and changes every day for every public company. It’s basically a way to incorporate in public consensus of how much the company is worth. And Next Up! Research clearly thinks that Solyndra will be worth a whole lot.
Next Up! Research’s projected market cap for Solyndra is based on a variety of data, including that Solyndra will have a 50 percent compound annual growth rate for revenues between 2010 and 2015, compared to a more modest 30 percent growth rate for the rest of the solar market. The report says that the installation costs for Solyndra can range between $0.50 and $0.75 per watt, which it says is about half that for other solar panels with a flat geometry, and that cost advantage could translate to better pricing and thus share gains. Next Up! Research also predicts that Solyndra will have a price per share of $6.54 – $7.44 for the common shares.
Solyndra’s estimated market cap of up to $2 billion is definitely aggressive. In comparison thin film solar leader First Solar (s FSLR) has a current market cap of $9.66 billion, solar panel maker Sun Power (s SPWRA) has a market cap of $1.84 billion (bad week for SunPower this week) and Suntech (s STB) has a market cap of $2.55 billion.
The report is available now on the SharesPost site, an experimental market place that lacks regulatory oversight and launched out of private beta in June. SharesPost valued electric vehicle maker Tesla (which also plans to IPO this year) at over $1 billion with an estimated price per share of $4.21-$4.93.
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