Updated: Mobile OS Newcomers Are Challenging The Industry’s Pioneers, IDC Says

Smartphone OS Battle

Worldwide shipments of smartphones will surpass 390 million units in 2013, and the mobile OS leaders will somewhat surprise you, forecasts research company IDC. Release.

Rather than the space being dominated by so-called pioneers, like BlackBerry, Symbian and Windows Mobile, newcomers to the space, like Google (NSDQ: GOOG) Android, Apple’s MacOS and Palm’s webOS, will claim a significant share. The one exception to that is Symbian, which will be propped up by Nokia’s strength in emerging markets. Likewise, IDC doesn’t believe Apple (NSDQ: AAPL) will stand up over time, but rather fall behind Symbian, Android, BlackBerry and Windows Mobile. IDC’s Stephen Drake: “Mobile operating systems have become the key ingredient in the highly competitive mobile device market…The wrong choice of operating system coupled with an awkward user interface can mean the difference between success and failure.” UPDATE: A list of the top operating systems for both 2009 and 2013 after the jump…

Drake provided a list of the top mobile OS companies for 2009 and 2013 to see how things will shake out over time. Here they are:

2009:
Symbian
BlackBerry
Mac OS X
Windows Mobile
Linux
Android
Palm

2013:
Symbian
Android
BlackBerry
Windows Mobile
Mac OS X
webOS
Linux
Maemo

Key findings:

Symbian’s strength: It will retain its leadership position worldwide due primarily to the strength of Nokia (NYSE: NOK) in markets outside of the U.S.

Google Android: Google will experience the fastest growth of any mobile operating system because it is starting from a very small base of just 690,000 units in 2008. IDC predicts it will reach 68 million units by 2013, to achieve growth of 150 percent, and be in second place.

Linux and webOS: Shipments will struggle throughout the forecast period and Palm’s webOS, despite growing steadily, will capture limited market share due to limited deployment and availability of devices across multiple carriers.

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