The blogosphere is buzzing around news of “the Google Phone,” but there still seems to be more questions than answers surrounding such a device. There’s no doubt that “it” is real, but — and sorry to loosely borrow from former President Clinton — “it” depends on what your definition of “it” is. For some, “it” is a phone sold directly from Google to the public. For others, it’s a handset that solely uses voice over IP and cellular data only. And still for some it’s a completely unlocked and carrier agnostic device. Let’s step back and see what we know about “it” and then handicap some odds on what might happen with this new handset, dubbed the “Nexus One.”
From a hardware perspective, the Nexus One didn’t come from left field. Pictures of the phone from Engadget confirm that it’s a design we’ve seen leaked back in October. In fact, the device looks similar to the HTC Bravo that appeared on a leaked roadmap for the first half of 2010. And while all of the specs are still under wraps, the Nexus One is very likely powered by a 1GHz Qualcomm Snapdragon processor — that’s the platform you can expect to see in higher end Android phones now through next year. So again, nothing too radical or unexpected here. The display could be an AMOLED, but it’s a very safe bet that it has the same 854 x 480 resolution as the latest Android handsets.
And then there’s the radio frequencies. The only truly wild thought is that this GSM device supports both the T-Mobile and AT&T 3G frequencies. That would set this apart as “the” Google Phone over all others, but that’s a bit of an unknown. Other than that aspect, the Nexus One is exactly what we should be — and have been — expecting. All in all, it sounds promising and since I may drop my Palm Pre, this device and others like it are appealing.
But then there’s the other side of the coin — the non-hardware attributes. Will Google sell this directly to the public or is this simply a phone to be sold to Google developers? I’m with Sascha Segan on this front — the latter scenario makes more sense to me because there isn’t another Google development phone that supports WVGA. Google just launched Android 2.0 a few months ago and it was the first version to support higher resolution screens, so making this phone available to developers is a logical progression.
Then there’s the cost of the Nexus One. I have no idea what it is, but if Google sells it without a carrier subsidy, it will either be cost-prohibitive for most consumers or Google will lose money on each. Of course, I’ve said in the past that Google’s currency is information, which could be a subsidy on it’s own. Regardless, most consumers will balk at a $400 or $500 Nexus One when they can very likely get the same handset for $199 with contract through a carrier. Like it or not, that’s the mainstream model here in the U.S.
One last bit about hardware — even though I addressed it above — there’s a difference between “unlocked” and “completely carrier agnostic.” I don’t doubt the Nexus One will be an unlocked handset. But I do have doubts about it supporting the 3G bands for both T-Mobile and AT&T here in the U.S. Unlocked means you can put a SIM card in from either carrier and use the phone. You’ll be able to make voice calls in that scenario, but you won’t have high-speed mobile broadband. If the Nexus One supports T-Mobile’s 3G network — which is my guess — you’ll only get pokey EDGE speeds using an AT&T SIM card in it. So yes, it would be an unlocked phone in that case, but would you really want to use it for data on AT&T’s network?
Having said all that, let’s play oddsmaker on some different scenarios:
- Nexus One will be sold to Google Android developers (1 – 1) — This is a no-brainer to me for reasons mentioned. Android will only continue its success through work of developers, both within and outside of Google. Offering the handset to developers makes it easier for them to take advantage of new features in Android 2.x.
- Nexus One will be sold directly to the public by Google (30 – 1) — I think it’s a long shot. Google doesn’t have much to gain in this case and they’re going to get the carriers worked up, so there’s much to lose. While Google and others would like to see the cellular market mature and change, it doesn’t have enough power to disrupt things just yet.
- Nexus One will be sold by carriers in March or April (5 – 1) — T-Mobile will offer the same handset or one extremely similar to it, possibly in the first quarter of 2010. The device won’t be priced higher than $199 and it will be locked to the carrier. AT&T offering this device isn’t likely, but if it happens, it won’t be until the second half of the year. This will be a T-Mobile flagship phone.
- Nexus One will support both AT&T and T-Mobile’s 3G frequencies (20 – 1) — While not impossible, it’s going to add cost to the device and I can’t see Google wanting to make this handset more expensive. If they do, developers will feel undermined.
- Google is loving all the hype created by the new phone (really? you need me handicap that one? ;) )
Anyone placing bets on the Nexus One or do you think my odds making is out of touch?
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