ZenithOptimedia is reversing its forecast for 2009 UK online ad spend – from its earlier prediction of a 2.3 percent increase, to an expectation of a 2.1 percent decrease.
The sector will pull in £2.78 billion this year, compared to 2008’s £2.84 billion, the Publicis-owned agency now reckons.
Updating its full-year estimates on Monday, Zenith says that the overall UK ad economy will fall 13.1 percent this year to £10.69 billion, with newspaper spend down 19.1 percent and magazines down 15.5 percent year on year.
Remember when online was going to offset declines in traditional media? In the UK, it just isn’t going to happen any time soon according to these figures: Zenith says UK online ad spend will fall again year on year by 1.1 percent in 2010 to £2.75 billion with only a modest 4.9 percent lift to £2.89 billion due in 2011.
Of the UK online total in 2009, 62.4 percent will come from search, 20.5 percent from classifieds and 17.6 percent from display
Globally, Zenith says online is the only advertising vertical that will grow in 2009 with a 9.2 percent lift — an improvement on its April prediction of an 8.6 percent global online growth but less than its most recent July prediction of a 10.1 percent lift, after a worse-than-expected first half. Across all media globally, Zenith downgrades its its earlier prediction of an 8.5 percent fall to 9.9 percent for 2009.
The recovery is coming, but it will be slow going: the report says the global ad economy will be back on track with 0.5 percent growth next year — a slight downward revision on Zenith’s earlier prediction — and 4.3 percent growth in 2011. Emerging economies leading the way with 7.8 percent annual growth across all media, while “developed nations” including the US, western Europe and Japan will collectively fall 2.9 percent.
But the good news: Zenith expects the “market to hit bottom before the end of 2009”; the report says the 2009 downturn “entirely relates to first-half activity… Since then improvements in economic confidence have been accompanied by positive signals from media owners that the downturn is bottoming out.”