Zenith Forecast: In ’09, Only Online Grows

Every major media category is set to see global revenues shrink this year, as only online is poised to end 2009 on the plus side, ZenithOptimedia said in the media agency’s latest forecast. Worldwide, online will be up 9.2 percent, Zenith said, revising its July prediction of 10.1 percent growth for the segment. Most of this growth is coming from paid search and other up-and-coming formats. The agency zeroed in on the performance of online sub-categories, where more granular data is available. That breakdown has paid search up by 20 percent this year, while online video grows 19 percent, social media’s up 45 percent and mobile gains 69 percent. To be sure, the actual dollar amounts in those subcategories remain relatively small.

Meanwhile, traditional display and classified are practically static in comparison: the Publicis Groupe-owned media shop says to expect growth of 3 percent and 2 percent, respectively, this year. Globally, Zenith says that internet advertising’s share of all ad spend will command14.9 percent by 2011, up from a 10.2 percent share of the ad pie in 2008.

Specifically, on a worldwide basis, online advertising will hit $60.2 billion next year, for an 11.5 percent rise, then gain another 13.8 percent in 2011, Zenith says.

As for details about Zenith’s take on the UK’s internet market, which appears to headed to go from the plus side to the minus side this year, check out out sister site, PCUK.