The act of making spending predictions this year is as uncertain as the economic recovery. The consensus lately indicates that the painful declines of the past year are finally bottoming out and that the recovery will feel more like a long convalescence. The latest forecast from Magna Global’s director of forecasting Brian Wieser appears to confirm that view, as his report finds that total U.S. ad spending will be down 15.4 percent to $162 billion this year. Spending in 2010 will remain essentially flat next year.
That story will play out similarly for national online ad spend in 2009 and 2010, as the category will fall 9.8 percent to $5.57 billion this year with a slim rise of 1.1 percent to $5.63 billion next year. As for the silver linings, Wieser pointed to pockets of growth in the first half of 2009 for paid search and online video — those two areas are expected to lead the industry as the fastest growing major media categories for the rest of 2009.
As for other digital ad spending, Magna anticipates that direct online media will be up just 2.5 percent in ’09 and will rebound strongly to $15.4 billion, for an 11.4 percent gain next year. Looking the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between ’09 and 2014, direct online will be one of the stronger ad spend categories at 10.6 percent. Local online, meanwhile, is expected to drop 11 percent by the end of this year, but it should increase by 3.8 percent in 2010. Local online CAGR will be a respectable 6.8 percent.
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