Local online ad revenues will hit $14.2 billion by the end of this year for a gain of 12 percent, says local online researcher Borrell Associates. That’s a slight revision upward from Borrell’s July prediction of an 11 percent rise in local web ad spend. For but just as others are expecting greater spending in 2010, Borrell says next year local online grow just 5 percent, to $14.9 billion. In the past five years, local online advertising grew at a compound annual growth rate of 46.5 percent. Blame it on a the maturation of the business and what’s expected to be a slow recovery, but for the next five, Borrell is projecting that rate to be 2.9 percent. In the meantime, as online media buys currently hold a 13.8 percent share of all local ad spend, Borrell believes it will peak at a 16 percent share by 2013.
Although it’s evolved beyond the “next big thing” stage, mobile is not likely to play a major role on the local media landscape next year. Local ad buys will comprise only 15 percent of all mobile advertising, totaling slightly more than $500 million in 2010. Certainly, as the audience growth rates continue to rise, and as couponing, mobile directory advertising and sponsored text messages find viable applications for local marketers, mobile will soon begin to shape the local ad space to a greater extent.