More than 100 million households in the world will have an Internet-connected TV by 2011, according to The Diffusion Group (TDG). That’s way more than current estimates, including one for GigaOM by Dan Rayburn. TDG says game consoles with lead the way with 20 million of those households using their Xboxes and the like to get online. What’s more, in a report prepared for GigaOM Pro (paid subscription), TDG analysts links together these estimates to paint a picture of tripled web video usage and significant revenue.
That online video usage, both on the TV and the PC, will bring in more than $10 billion in revenue in the U.S. by 2013. These numbers aren’t exactly parallel, since they’re for separate years, but the rest of the world is supposed to account for $5.5 billion in ad revenue by 2012. Over-the-top revenue is expected to come primarily through subscriptions at first — until a market builds big enough for advertising — with movie rentals worth $4 billion before the end of 2011. Niche content services like Kylin.TV (Chinese TV), &TV (Korean TV) and SkyAngel (Christian family-centric TV) will bring in $1 billion by the end of 2011.
TDG concludes that over-the-top delivery is a significant threat to payTV, especially if net neutrality can be maintained. More than half of adult Internet users surveyed by TDG said they are somewhat likely to cancel their existing payTV service in favor of an over-the-top replacement.
At this point cord-cutting is far too partisan a topic for anyone to believe projections that don’t align with their preset notions of reality. But as time goes on, we’ll see whose vision turns true.