Wireless data revenue in the United States for the first time passed $10 billion in the first quarter of 2009, an increase of five percent from the fourth quarter of 2008 and 32 percent year-on-year. “Given the strong growth in data revenues shown by the top carriers and the increase in service revenues overall, it appears that at least for the time being that the worst is over for the mobile industry,” wrote analyst Chetan Sharma in his US Market Update. He expects overall data revenues to increase by 24 percent in 2009 to $42 billion for the year.
This was not only the first time US wireless data revenues have surpassed $10 billion for the quarter, but the first time any country has reported that. The top four US carriers now occupy the #3, #4, #6, and #8 spots in the top 10 globl operators by terms of revenue, and NTT DoCoMo (NYSE: DCM), China Mobile, Verizon Wireless (NYSE: VZ) and AT&T (NYSE: T) are the only carriers getting more than $3 billion a quarter in wireless data service revenues.
While data revenue growth is fairly strong, the increase is still not enough to offset falling voice revenue. Overall ARPU for the US carriers fell by 91 cents, with average voice ARPU declining by $1.17 and average data ARPU climbing by $0.26. “We are likely to see continued price and margin pressure on subscription plans and as a result, voice ARPU will continue its downward trend and data ARPU will become a more prominent factor of the ARPU mix by the end of 2009 reaching over 30 percent of the service revenues,” wrote Sharma, adding that some carriers would find the current business and pricing models untenable. Sprint (NYSE: S) led in data ARPU with $15 followed by Verizon at $14.16. In terms of percentage contribution, Verizon led with 27.91 percent followed by AT&T at 27.2 percent.
In the first quarter of this year US carriers added 3 million new subscribers — the country now has a mobile penetration rate higher than 90 percent — and 62 percent of US subscribers were using some form of data services. The messaging volumes in the US market now averaging 485 messages/subscriber/month with messaging revenue growing 7 percent compared to the previous quarter, and the 3G penetration in the US went past 40 percent in Q109. Non-messaging services generated 50-60 percent of data revenues, and about 17 percent of customers have flat-rate plans.
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