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Today brought yet another forecast for ther 2009 display advertising. Since it’s hard to keep all the various ad forecasts straight — particularly with the frequent revisions — here’s a quick rundown of some from the past three months from prominent internet ad-revenue prognosticators:
Prediction: growth of 4.5 percent
Comment: The quick followup to yesterday’s Interactive Advertising Bureau’s tally for 2008 — while citing worsening economic conditions — suggests that no one really knows how low it’s going to get this year.
Prediction: A meager 2.3 percent increase from ’08
Comment: Since December, Barclays has ratcheted back its predictions from overall online ad growth from 6 percent. Search, meanwhile, has been dropped from 20 percent growth to 8 percent, while display is down from 4 percent growth to 1.2 percent. More after the jump.
Prediction: 5.9 percent growth
Comment: This is slightly more optimistic than the recent spate of downward revisions by other analysts, but Lindsay is just as despairing as the rest when it comes to display, which he anticipates will slip 1.5 percent.
Who: Veronis Suhler:
Prediction: 9.1 percent global digital media growth.
Comment: Definitely one of the more optimistic downward revisions.
Prediction: 1.4 percent growth
Comment: a huge downward revision from the previous forecast three months earlier of 10.4 percent growth
Who: JP Morgan:
Prediction: growth of 10 percent, but display ads, including both performance and branded advertising, will grow only 6.3 percent.
Comment: Analyst Imran Khan began the year by proclaiming that performance-based search ads’ dominance was set.