After a terrible fourth quarter for handset sale at the end of 2008 IDC is now predicting more of the same for this year, specifically that worldwide handset shipments will fall by 8.3 percent in 2009. The analysts predict that the USA market will see a fall of 14.8 percent, and other mature regions such as Japan and Western Europe will see declines ranging from 12.4 percent to 24.6 percent through 2009. The double-digit growth rates of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are predicted to fall to a collective 0.3, with a sharp downturn in Russia counteracting continued strong growth in India. “Worse-than-expected results and a steady flow of negative economic news are indicating that 2009 will be gloomier than predicted,” said Ryan Reith, senior research analyst with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Phone Tracker. Converged Mobile Devices (read smartphones and up) will see lower worldwide growth than previously predicted 8.7 percent — that’s been dropped to 3.4 percent worldwide, and 7.9 percent in the USA.
On the other hand, IDC does not see this as indicative of the markets potential but just a result of the economic downturn, and expects shipments to pick up again in 2010. The total worldwide market is predicted to grow by 9.5 percent in 2010, taking shipments to 2008 levels, and the total market in the US is predicted to grow by 6.1 percent. Converged mobile devices will be a big part of this, growing by 28.4 percent in the USA and 22.2 percent worldwide. (release)
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