Report: Worst-Case Scenario Sees Annual Growth In Mobile Content Of 7 Percent

Juniper Research has issued a report about the growth of the mobile entertainment market contrasting the best case scenario with the worst case scenario — not a bad move considering the volatility in the markets. The difference is broad — the best case sees an average annual growth of 19 percent over the next two years until the mobile entertainment market hits nearly $36 billion in 2010, while the worst case scenario sees growth of only 7 percent annually over the next two years, which would put the market at a bit less than $30 billion. Juniper puts the market at $25.4 billion in 2008, after a growth of 28 percent that year. I guess the good news is that the worst case scenario still includes pretty strong growth… In the worst case scenario (if the recession doesn’t bottom out in the next 12 months) mobile TV, user-generated content and music are thought to be the most exposed to the downturn. Lower discretionary spending would account for most of the difference, but a lack of funds to develop new applications and a reluctance to roll out capital-intensive services such as mobile broadcast TV would also be involved. (release)

This white paper (PDF) reveals that Juniper’s best case scenario sees an average annual growth rate for the mobile entertainment industry of 15.2 percent over the next five years to $51.5 billion by the end of 2013, with music being the largest segment and games being the second largest. Irrespective of the broader economy, this figure is reliant on carriers changing the way they handle mobile content.

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