What we’ve been suspecting about the recession’s effect on online advertising spend is confirmed today: according to research firm Forrester, European online ad spend will grow by just 10 percent in 2009, down from a predicted annual growth rate of 30 percent back in 2007. The gloomy prediction comes from analyst Nate Elliot, who says that search advertising will come out of the slump the best, with marketers looking for instant results with their reduced budgets, while display will be the hardest-hit sector.
So 10 percent growth may not sound great when you look back to predictions for 2010/09 from years gone by — for example PwC once forecast a global 18.3 percent rise every year until 2011. But compared to most analysts’ recent takes, Elliot is being pretty optimistic. Enders Analysis predicted online ad spend growth for 2009 of just 2.1 percent for 2009, rising to 9.3 percent in 2010. WPP’s Group M forecast a four percent digital ad spend rise this year, while eMarketer puts it at 7.2 percent.