Tech predictions- what we’ll see in 2009

predictOh boy, it’s that time of year when we put ourselves out on the front line and boldly make our predictions for what we’ll see in the world of mobile tech in 2009.  I say “we” but that’s only to put Kevin’s butt on the line too.  :)  He and I actually disagree on some of the things we expect hope to see next year.  Here are the big mobile tech predictions broken down by tech genre:

Notebooks

By far the biggest story in notebooks will continue to be the lowly netbook.  We will see models refreshed and new models continue to be released by those new to the scene.  Prices will remain about where they are at the end of 2008 as they don’t have very far to fall while keeping the basic features intact. These basic features will not change much due to the thin price range.  We’ll continue to see Atoms everywhere, 1 GB of RAM, SSDs and HDDs like we see now.  Touchscreens will start to be offered but it won’t take long for consumers to figure out they offer little except higher cost.

Windows 7 will appear in the second half of 2009 and Microsoft will make a big push to get XP off of netbooks.  They will have to make huge concessions for a new OS as far as pricing to do so however.  Netbooks that cost $300 – 400 will not support an OS with a licensing fee of over $25.  The term “netbook” will continue to flourish despite Psion’s best efforts.

Major OEMs will continue to push thin and light notebooks on both the enterprise and increasingly on consumers.  The race will stay on to add the most features while keeping the price around $1,000 for these consumer laptops.  Integrated 3G will continue to be a feature on notebooks but consumers will remain reluctant to pony up $60 per month for the data plans.  Unfortunately we will not see any new developments in battery tech so things will be stagnant in this area.

Apple will finally refresh the 17-inch MacBook Pro by introducing a powerful unibody Pro with the big screen and a quad-core processor.  This will be aimed at the professional graphics worker and will cost in the rich neighborhood of $3,000.  There will not be an Apple netbook as such a low priced device is not in Apple’s scheme of things.  They will introduce an “iPod Maxi” that is an iPod Touch with a 5 – 7-inch screen.  They will claim this is their netbook, although lacking a keyboard.

Smartphones

The line between smartphones and feature phones will continue to blur in 2009 with consumers not caring what their phone is called.  We will continue to see feature-rich phones with big touchscreens and web browsing pushed by the carriers.  This will have a desirable affect for smartphone users as the carriers will have to reduce their monthly rate for data plans.  Consumers just “buying a phone” will not pay the high fees for data plans that are being charged now.  We will see 3G stop being a selling point and become an expected commodity in 2009.  The proliferation of web phones will begin saturating the carrier’s networks and may affect enterprise service.

Microsoft will likely introduce the next interim version of Windows Mobile to compete more directly with the iPhone.  This will not be the next major version of WM which likely won’t appear until 2010.  This interim version of Windows Mobile must incorporate touch throughout the core of the OS if new WM devices are to remain competitive.  HTC will continue to be the biggest WM handset producer in 2009.

Apple may introduce a refresh of the iPhone 3G but it will be minor if so.  We might see an updated processor and video capabilities but that’s about it.

Android will really begin picking up steam in 2009 and we expect to see as many as 12 handsets appear from different OEMs bearing the Android OS.  The OS will continue to improve and get really robust as the commercial app store is open early in the year.  Android will become a force to be reckoned with in 2009 and begin stealing market share from Windows Mobile.  We’ll see version 2 of Android in 2009 that will rapidly bring it into the competitive world.  Expect Exchange support in Android 2.

Nokia and other OEMs will continue to lose market share to Apple and RIM.  Blackberries will continue to invade the consumer space making RIM even bigger than before.  They will produce several new handsets that will firmly straddle the enterprise/ consumer space, thus cementing their future in the smartphone domain.

4G

WiMAX will continue to roll out but not many will care.  The major players will continue to be burned by the “chicken and egg” situation that has consumers waiting to enroll until the coverage is as big as 3G.  LTE will make strides in 2009 on its way to be the NBT in 4G and this will be a nail in the WiMAX coffin.

Tablet PCs

We add this category reluctantly because it is clear that it is dead as a product line.  The current players producing devices will continue to refresh them but little innovation will appear in this space in 2009.  Touch will continue to be the rage in this area, continuing to push the ink well off the screen.  This is expected with the technology incorporated into Vista and touch being a mantra with Windows 7.  Ink will become an even smaller niche market in 2009 than it was in 2008.

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