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Barclays Reduces ’09 Online Ad Forecast To 6 Percent Growth; Total Ad Spend To Fall 10 Percent

Another day, another ad spend downgrade… Online advertising will grow a paltry 6.1 percent to $25.1 billion next year, says Barclays Capital internet analyst Doug Anmuth, in his latest significant downward revision. It was only October when he predicted that web ad dollars would grow 16.9 percent. That was revised down from May’s expectation of 23.4 percent. But as a commenter said on an earlier ad spend outlook, some growth is better than none. Putting things into perspective, the U.S. total ad spending looks to plummet 10 percent to $252.1 billion, Anmuth now says, altering his previous -5.5 percent projection.

Separately, Nielsen released preliminary figures for the first three quarters of 2008 and found that online display ads fell 5.6 percent on an ad decline of 0.6 percent for the period. (Nielsen’s release is here)

Looking to the close of 2008, this year’s online ad spend is expected to rise 11.4 percent to $23.6 billion, Anmuth estimates. Earlier this fall, Anmuth had anticipated ’08’s online take to rise 16.9 percent to $24.79 billion. Back in May, Anmuth predicted online revenue gain of 23.4 percent. As for the good news, that will have to wait until 2010, when Anmuth says internet ads should reaccelerate to 12 percent, reaching $28.1 billion. Anmuth’s ’09 forecast is in line with some other prognosticators’ views from this month

Much more after the jump

Magna Global

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