eMarketer Slashes ’09 Forecast Nearly In Half; 2010 Growth Won’t Be Much Better

Here we go again … Citing severe deterioration in the economy, eMarketer has dramatically reduced its 2009 online ad spending projections to only 8.9 percent growth, compared to the 14.5 percent gains it estimated in August. The revision was prompted by the latest Interactive Advertising Bureau and PricewaterhouseCoopers tally of online ad spending, which said last week that web-based advertising grew 11 percent in Q3 to $5.9 billion. And so, eMarketer now expects online ad spend to hit $25.7 billion next year, while it anticipates 2008 to finish up with $23.6 billion.

Slow recovery in 2010: The researcher’s downward revision also notes that recovery will not snap back within the next four years. In 2010, online ad spending growth will return (just barely) into the double digits at 10.9 percent, and in 2013 it will hit 13.5 percent. And paid search, which has been considered the most resilient online ad format, will see a mere 21.4 percent rise in 2008 expenditures. Video will also lose some steam; growth is expected to be strong this year, rising 81 percent, but those rates will drop almost in half next year, when the increase will be 44.9 percent. As for display, it will be up a meager 3.9 percent in 2008 and 6.6 percent in 2010. Release