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Not the ringingest of endorsements from PriceWaterhouseCoopers: traditional media are not dead yet… because their consumers are not dead yet. Analyst Marcel Fenez (via Press Gazette): “One of the things we need to get into context here is that traditional media isn’t dead yet and won’t be for the next five years. It’s very important to think why. The over-50s are helping to sustain traditional media, and also in many of the emerging markets there is still plenty of room for traditional media. The death of traditional media is exaggerated, at least in a five-year context.”
So media forecasting becomes mortality prediction. On that basis, assuming advances in healthcare continue to extend human lifespans, “traditional” media may even be around for more than five years. Although digital ad spend will grow 11 times faster than print up to 2012, it will still only be 10 percent that in newspapers, Fenez said.
Among Fenez’s predictions, via Journalism.co.uk, are that global newspaper advertising will grow 2.9 percent to $136.8 billion by 2012, with digital making up 43 percent of that growth. Fenez expects print advertising to grow 1.8 percent to $123.3 billion worldwide by 2012 and for digital to grow 19.3 percent to $13.4 billion.