Blogging Ike- storm surge is unprecedented

13 Comments

Authorities are expressing amazement at the level of storm surge that is already hitting the Gulf Coast due to Hurricane Ike.  Galveston Island is experiencing a 5 – 7 foot surge with an estimated 15 feet of additional storm surge expected at landfall in over 12 hours.  They just reported that in addition to the 20 feet of total storm surge expected based on what they are seeing already hitting the coast they believe there will be 20 feet of high waves on TOP of the storm surge.  This is going to be rough.  What has them so concerned is the huge size of Ike which has a tremendous impact on the storm surge that is being generated.  They are saying that massive flooding will extend very far inland as a result of this storm surge which one official just stated is nothing like they have seen in over 50 years.  They predict 5 – 10 inches of rainfall PER HOUR near the corridor where the eye of the storm will pass.  It’s going to be a very rough ride, and this doesn’t take into account the high winds.

Ike

13 Comments

Brett Marko

They are forecasting a 15-20 ft storm surge for Ike. At 16 ft, Galveston is completely flooded. At 17 ft, the seawall is completely topped over. This is all before you take into account the waves that could be 8 – 12 feet higher than the surge.

Brett
http://www.leftofselfcenter.com

Paul, England, UK

God luck James. I for one won’t be moaning about the UK weather again!

Marin

Stay safe JK. I have lots of family in the Pasadena area and hoping everything turns out okay.

It’s incredible the scope of this. The Galveston warning to residents was, essentially, evacuate or face certain death.

Chuck

James – hunker down. I’m hunkered in College Station. Let me know if I can help after tomorrow.

Chuck

Scott

James
tried to send this to your email but was blocked.
James
Saw your posts…..this is from our private weather service. Will try to generate a wind profile for zip code 77095 later and send that along. Keep safe.
scott

The latest from Impact Weather. Under the current scenario, it is looking better. The wind profile generator where I can generate a profile by zip code isn’t working now, suspect server overload. Will try again in a bit and send that.

scott

Hurricane Ike Advisory 46
Issued: Friday, September 12th 2008 10:59am CDT
Current Status
At 11AM CDT, Hurricane Ike is near 27.3N/92.7W, or about 185 miles southeast of Galveston, TX. Maximum sustained winds remain 105 mph. Ike is moving west-northwest near 13 mph.
Changes From our Previous Forecast
We’ve made additional modifications to Ike’s projected wind field to reflect the latest data from reconnaissance. The radius of maximum winds northeast of the center has decreased from about 70-90 miles to about 50-60 miles in the past 3 hours.
Our Forecast
Ike is on track to move inland over western Galveston Bay this evening. There are no changes to the forecast track. Once inland, Ike should track northward through east Texas on Saturday and turn northeast into Arkansas on Sunday morning. Ike could strengthen a little up until landfall, possibly reaching Category 3 strength of 115 mph this afternoon, though our current forecast takes Ike to 110 mph. Once inland, Ike’s winds should steadily weaken, probably to below hurricane force by noon Saturday and below tropical storm force Saturday night.
It is important to note that Ike’s maximum winds are not located near Ike’s center, they’re located about 50-70 miles east of Ike’s center. This means that if Ike moves inland into Galveston Bay as forecast, Ike’s strongest winds will move ashore east of Galveston and south of the Port Arthur/Sabine Pass area this evening. We expect that the storm surge near the Texas/Louisiana border from south of Port Arthur to south of Lake Charles may reach 15-20 feet as Ike’s center approaches the coast. The surge into Vermilion Bay could reach 10-15 feet. Across southeast Louisiana, tides may run up to 7-10 feet above normal this afternoon and tonight.
Across Galveston Island, the surge could reach 12-16 feet east of where the center crosses the island. In western and northwest Galveston Bay, the surge could reach as high as 15-20 feet. However, with Ike’s max winds well east of the center the surge estimate for Galveston and Galveston Bay could turn out to be too high.
Other Possibilities
It is possible that Ike’s center could wobble 20-30 miles either side of the track up until landfall. This could result in the peak storm surge shifting a bit east or west of the track at landfall.
Our next full advisory will be issued by 4PM CDT.
Meteorologist: Chris Hebert

couldn’t atttach the graphics!

Mark Polino

Stay safe. Those of us who been through a few of these feel for you. One tip, when cell phone were overwhelmed after hurricanes came through Orlando, text messages went through just fine.

Mark

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