Jury’s Still Out On Verizon’s FiOS; A $6 Billion Hole In The Wall?

Attitudes towards FiOS, Verizon’s (NYSE: VZ) next-gen internet and video platform, are constantly changing, as investors alternate between dismay and optimism over the prospects of the $23 billion gambit. Saul Hansell surveys the current landscape and finds… that the outlook is still pretty cloudy. The company currently has about 1.4 million customers, and room to grow in the markets where the rollout is complete (penetration rates are in the 20 percent range), but the issue remains cost: Bernstein analyst Craig Moffett predicts the venture will represent a $6 billion “hole in the wall,” and he likens Verizon to a Maserati dealer selling at Volkswagen prices. If you’re willing to widen the goalposts, others can sound more bullish: David Barden, a Banc of America analyst, notes that past FiOS investments are good for 2008 investors, even if 2003 investors had to pay the price.

Some solace for Verizon might be found in this last quarter: Cable companies significantly outpaced their telco rivals, picking up some 80 percent of new internet subs. Comcast (NSDQ: CMCSA) chalked it up to demand for bandwidth heavy applications like online video. Consumers clearly pay attention to speeds. Had Verizon not moved fast, simply focusing on marginal improvements, or milking its existing infrastructure, the broadband business might’ve looked much shakier than it does now.

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