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Apple’s Best-Case Scenario: It Sells 45 Million iPhones And Makes $1 Billion On Applications In 09

You would think that some of the iPhone hype would be starting to wind down three days after Steve Jobs’ hypnotizing sales pitch on Monday, which rattled off a list of all the most wonderful aspects about the second-generation iPhone, but it seems like people are still processing the presentation. Two subjects that stand out today are: analysts expectations for how many iPhones will be sold in 2009, and some thoughts on how big Apple’s (NSDQ: AAPL) App store will be over time.

— How many iPhones will Apple sell in 2009?: There’s quite a range of estimates coming from Wall Street, starting at the top with Piper Jaffary’s 45 million estimate to Bernstein’s low-end at 10 million, reports Fortune. The bulk of the analysts fall somewhere in between at a conservative 22 million or so. Of course, Jobs said during his speech that to date, they have sold 6 million. Since the phone’s price is falling to $199 and it has more features than ever, analysts are expecting sales to rise.

— The App Store business opportunity: If Apple is lowering the price of the iPhone, does it expect to make money on selling more handsets, or are the revenues going to come from somewhere else? Well, if we were the betting nature, we’d say those revenues will be coming from the App store. Investment bank Piper Jaffray, which had the bullish 45 million estimate above, is also thinking big for the App store, which it says could balloon into a $1 billion market by next year, according to AppleInsider. In a research note sent to clients today, analyst Gene Munster said his $1 billion market figure is the best case scenario that he came up with, and that at that level, it would add 3 percent to Apple’s 2009 operating income. The estimate assumes that there will be 61.6 million iPhone and 23.4 iPod touch users who would buy at least one item at the App Store during the year. Another post on the same subject, broke it down like this, the iPhone is a razor, and the App store is selling blades, writes Mark Evans. He he went a bit further, too. He said: “love your iPhone but get ready to pay through the nose for it.”

4 Responses to “Apple’s Best-Case Scenario: It Sells 45 Million iPhones And Makes $1 Billion On Applications In 09”

  1. The iPhone 3G price discount isn't coming out of Apple's pocket is it? I thought the handset price is subsidised by the carrier…AT&T;in USA…which is the classic model in Europe and USA, but not the model in Asia (illegal in S.Korea). So any app money will be additional.

  2. I think a great many IPhone/Touch users will purchase at least one thing from the App store. If it has any free content I expect even more will download that. The Iphone isn't preloaded with much, it has desperately needed a game. Apple would do well to preload a game that showcases the phone in later models.

  3. jesper

    Well, Yes Apple will be dominating the market, but a thing Apple are not good at is there consumers. lets just talk a bit about the old iPhone. thousands of costumers has been asking for copy / paste or cut / paste, but nothing happens. Even the new iPhone will not be able to do this. Why ? I personally have no idea, why they do not make this. It is a vital tool for any that has to communicate with a lot of people, and not share all the info. I have had the iPhone from when it came out and I'm still using it, many would say, " if you are not happy with it, get another phone ", but it is not that simple. Cause the phone is good and I love the mail ( it just doesn't support spam, so all your spam will go to your inbox, if the server you use is not a special kind ) and web browser. those things are great.
    Why did the the iPhone not go well in europe. Well Europe is light years in front of USA, so it is easy to please US. To sell in Europe and Asia you need to have a "super phone" and to be honest the old iPhone was nothing close to that.
    The new iPhone, will still have a hard time cause the technology is still old. 3G has been around in Asia and Europe for at-least 7 years. Europe was doing video calls on cell phones 6 years ago. Why do we not get that. why is there still no video camera function ?
    Apple is great at hyping products and to make them work so well, you just need to have MOBILE ME. Apple is perhaps just for me a bit to "smart".
    So conclusion on my long comment is that I do think Apple will sell a lot, but I hope that Apple will start getting up to the beat of the consumers and LISTEN to them, cause they don't

  4. >Since the phone’s price is falling to $199

    The price is NOT falling to $199 !!!

    Why is Jobs getting away with every BS he spins ?

    Here in Germany I can get a Nokia N95 with a 9,99 € /month contract for 1 €, why you and the other "Journalists" don't make a story like " N95 price falling to 1 €" out of this ?