Can Grand Theft Auto IV Defeat "Iron Man"?

Update, May 4: Can Grand Theft Auto IV defeat “Iron Man”? The weekend box office results are in, and as I predicted yesterday, the answer to that question is a resounding “No”. In its first weekend, “Iron Man” grossed $100 million, far more than industry expectations (and mine), which pegged it at $70-80 million. But the notion that GTA IV (or for that matter, any other hardcore game) would hurt a major Hollywood movie never made sense. Read why below.

Many are predicting that the latest release of the video game franchise is so popular that it will hurt this weekend’s launch of Paramount Pictures/Marvel Entertainment’s latest superhero movie. This theory is everywhere, not just on game sites like Gamepro and Next Gen, but even reputable mainstream sites like CNN.

The argument is silliness on stilts. It is proof, however, that far too many gamers and industry executives are trapped in an echo chamber of self-regard. That’s a bad thing for the industry, so it’s worth addressing. In absolute numbers, the reality is that hardcore gamers who comprise GTA IV’s main audience are minuscule compared to the audience of a typical Hollywood blockbuster.

The latest in the Grand Theft Auto series, which was released on Tuesday, is currently only available for Xbox 360 and the PS3 owners, which means its potential audience is much smaller than the previous game. There’s just 15 million of them in the U.S. (11.6 million for the 360 and 4.7 million for PS3, respectively), according to VGChartz. Even if every single one of them buys a copy of GTA IV, the total audience is still dwarfed by potential moviegoers. “Spider-Man 3,” for example, grossed $336.5 million in U.S. theaters — with the average 2007 movie ticket price $6.88, that’s nearly 50 million viewings. And that’s only the start of a Hollywood movie’s audience, with the far larger DVD, ancillary markets (airplane/hotel/cable TV/etc.) to follow.

As it stands, GTA IV is forecast to sell just six million copies in its first week. Retailing at $60 or more per sale, that does translate to hundreds of millions of dollars — but the idea that this will have any substantial impact on the opening of “Iron Man” is a stretch. I’ll predict it now: This weekend, those six million GTA IV owners will be eclipsed by the 10 million-plus who will be lined up at U.S. theaters, and in the end, “Iron Man” will gross $70 million or more. But I’ll also predict that smackdown won’t quell the myth that video games are bigger than movies, which somehow remains more indestructible than Robert Downey Jr.’s career.

Image credit: rockstargames.com/IV/, ironmanmovie.marvel.com.

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