WGA Strike: Ad Agency React: ‘The Aftermath Begins'; Upfront Presentations Remain In Doubt

While broadcast media buyers and marketers are likely to feel relieved by the end of the work stoppage, some contend that too much damage has been done for things to return to normal. Chris Boothe, a president at Publicis Groupe’s Starcom USA, tells AdAge that “the aftermath begins” once the strike is completely wrapped up, adding that repercussions to the TV ad business will continue to be felt for some time. Some effects stemming from the way the labor action will permanently affect the way TV ad time is bought. Among the immediate expectations are:

— There will be less original programming overall, with reality TV assuming a greater share of prime-time.

— Rather than schedule most of the new season for a big fall opening, many new shows will see staggered debuts. Networks will likely begin to roll out more shows during Q4.

— Audience erosion has been a fact of life for the networks the past few years. But the strike may have sped up that trend. According to Sanford Bernstein analyst Michael Nathanson, live prime-time audiences between the ages of 18 and 49 fell 11 percent through Jan. 27, with CBS (NYSE: CBS) down 19.6 percent, while ABC dropped 15.2 percent and NBC saw a decrease 13.8 percent. Thanks to popular unscripted shows like American Idol, Fox was the only one to gain, albeit a modest 3.7 percent. Cable has grown and as more people by DVRs, live prime-time ratings might not be able to make a comeback.

— Development of new shows have been held up during the strike. Therefore, the networks might not have a reason to hold the annual bombast that is the upfront. Between the start of the negotiations in May and the end in end in early summer, marketers placed $9.2 billion in advertising for the 2007 fall season. With some networks left wondering whether they will have to produce “make-goods” – returning advertisers’ money for shows that failed to hit guaranteed ratings points – the shape of this year’s upfront is very much in doubt.

B&C: Only Fox appears committed to hosting its major upfront presentation this year. NBC continues to waver on its upfront plans. The way it looks right now, the network’s fall preview will have a decidedly more scaled back quality.

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