Lots of commentary on Microsoft’s (NSDQ: MSFT) bid for Yahoo (NSDQ: YHOO), but how will this affect the Internet/digital media M&A market in the short to medium term? For one, the big GYMA combine of suitors will come down to three: Google (NSDQ: GOOG), MSFT-YHOO and AOL (NYSE: TWX), and even then, the first two would dominate. Some other experts weigh in with various scenarios:
— Copycat deals: Microsoft-Yahoo deal could be good for Silicon Valley, funneling money into the economy and triggering a round of copycat deals as other players like Google and News Corp look to keep up (NYT).
— More money for Yahoo to do deals: Dave McClure weighs in comments on Wilson’s post: Yahoo has been challenged to do the scale/pace of acquisitions they’d like, due to the pressure from Google’s monetization and their own challenged stock price/available cash. Microsoft would allow Yahoo to have a much bigger treasure chest to make deals happen, and perhaps closer proximity/ visibility/opportunity to see what’s out there.
— Instability leads to less deals: Fred Wilson: In addition to one less mega Internet company, we also have IAC (NSDQ: IACI) in an unstable situation that could well result in it (or part of it) getting gobbled up. And the big media companies like NBCU, CBS (NYSE: CBS), News Corp (NYSE: NWS). Disney (NYSE: DIS), Viacom (NYSE: VIA), etc have never really been able to compete with the valuations that the big Internet companies were paying…I think all of us who start or finance consumer oriented web services should be thinking a bit differently about exit scenarios now. It’s time to think long term.
— Effect on tuck-in deals: Brad Burnham: Yahoo has traditionally been more active in smaller “tuck in” deals, something Microsoft doesn’t do a lot of. Losing one of the Valley’s most reliable “tuck in” acquirors and second-place bidders is a net negative for the Valley.
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