The Official MocoNews Predictions For 2008

Every year — for one reason or another — we make predictions as to what the world will see in the mobile content space in the coming year. The format is a bit different this year as I noticed that last year’s predictions were so imprecise it was difficult to call them right or wrong. So as well as the general trends I’ve included a null hypothesis, something that can be proven wrong (I realise these are not the exact equivalent of a scientific null hypothesis because they can be proven correct).

Trend: This year will see the handset manufacturers finally manage to roll out content services. The most widespread will be Nokia (NYSE: NOK) with its Ovi service, but Sony (NYSE: SNE) Ericsson (NSDQ: ERIC) will do a lot with its Walkman brand and the other major handset manufacturers will also make various efforts. Null Hypothesis: Ovi will be live in at least 30 countries by the end of 2008, although it’s likely a few carriers will account for most of these.

Trend: Governments will continue to make noises about filtering the internet, both online and mobile. Australia and Japan will be joined by some other countries, clamouring for filtering and monitoring “for the sake of the kids” and ignoring the fact that the technologies proposed are largely ineffectual. Null Hypothesis: The rumblings of the various parliamentarians may or may not make it into actual law. But if they do there will be no difference in any crime rates nor any other visible, quantifiable effect of the laws.

Trend: The Chinese government will not issue licenses for 3G or mobile TV networks in time for a proper roll-out by the Beijing Olympics — which isn’t a tricky prediction, since it is already too late. Any possible promotional benefit of the Olympics to the home-grown technologies or China’s reputation as a high-tech company will be wasted. Null Hypothesis: There will be network roll-outs in the “Olympic Cities” but nowhere else, and they won’t gather much attention because no-one will have compatible handsets. With a bit of luck there’ll be a review by the tech press, but IT geeks don’t tend to gravitate towards sports…

Trend: Every carrier, platform provider, content provider, handset manufacturer and annoying guy down the pub will tout the “openness” of their respective businesses and philosophies. They will wax lyrical about their dedication to the cause, but on closer scrutiny their pronouncements will prove to be more rhetoric than reality. Null Hypothesis: Aside from Android and a couple of other things that have open as part of their fundamental business model, there will be no perceptible change in the ability of developers to create things for general consumption.

loading

Comments have been disabled for this post