The flow of PE-led buyouts in the media and entertainment field have certainly come to an abrupt halt, fueled by increase in deal multiples and the ongoing turmoil in the high-risk subprime mortgage space and this summer’s global credit crunch. But will the money start flowing back again? THR has a detailed story on it, ahead of the parent company Nielsen’s Media & Money conference in NYC this week (we will have detailed coverage from it). Deals are expected to resurface in 2008, but things will never be quite the same both in terms of deal size and buyout targets, the story suggests. “There will be fewer debt-driven deals,” explains Hal Vogel, president of Vogel Capital Management. “And it may be hard to find big companies outside maybe cable or newspaper or book publishing that would want to go private.”
Once investors weather the crunch, deal multiples will be lower, and there will be less debt leverage in media and entertainment buyouts, the story says. But the timing may be late next year: there’s a backlog of PE-backed deals that has to be worked off before new deals can start rolling. James Attwood at Carlyle predicts it could take until the end of the first quarter of next year to move all the backlogged PE deals forward.
Also, PE focus could shift into different areas — Internet, digital media and online advertising. Among them, Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) could decide to sell its Time Inc. and AOL divisions, with PE players likely at least to take a long look, the story says.
With depressed company valuations, it may also mean level financial playing field for strategic buyers — media and entertainment companies looking to acquire peers.
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