Mac followers can consider PC Magazine columnist John Dvorak a “contrarian indicator”. Often, the more frustrated and vitriolic Dvorak gets over a technology, the more likely it is to succeed. Dvorak is well-known for stirring up a hornet’s nest by slamming Apple and its users. That’s why it’s really no surprise that his latest rant calls for Apple to ditch the iPhone before it becomes what he expects will be a marketplace disaster.
1. Apple will face strong competition.
2. The lifespan of a “cool” phone is too short.
3. Good margins don’t exist in the phone business.
Dvorak suggests Apple is incapable of updating the iPhone frequently enough to be hip, that it couldn’t take more than a 5% market share against Microsoft in the personal computer space, despite having better technology, and that high margins won’t exist in the phone business for much longer than your standard long-distance call.
Dvorak says that as Apple has a reputation for being a company that “can do no wrong”, they should get out of the phone business, before it’s too late.
Some of Dvorak’s more recent edicts for Apple have been to have Mac OS X open sourced, for Apple to switch to Windows, and speculation than an Apple and Sun merger was imminent. This suggestion will probably be taken as seriously by Apple as the others.