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So says Adams Media Research in their press release summing up the results of their “Video on the Internet” management report. That’s based on $1.7 billion in ad revenue from streamed content and $4.1 billion on pay-per-download models such as iTunes.
AMR’s analysis points to a period of experimentation 2007-2009, during which the ad-supported model will predominate. But as significant numbers of homes connect their TVs to the Internet, consumer spending on downloaded movies and TV shows should expand rapidly and exceed ad spending substantially by 2011.
Like the Apple TV needed the good press, AMR is basically giving it all the credit for opening up the market to pay-per-download programming. But before you bet your nest egg on Apple stock, the Financial Times quotes AMR’s Tom Adams cautioning, “We think it’s about to happen, but there will be some stops and starts – getting these technologies to work is not trivial.” Actually, the technology is trivial, at least relative to negotiating deals with content providers.