BBC's On-Demand Plans Criticized By Ofcom; Expects 30% TV Viewing Dropoff in 5 Years

BBC’s online on-demand plans (its iPlayer service with archives of the last seven days of shows) has received a cautious recommendation from Ofcom, UK’s communications regulato,r following a market impact assessment. Ofcom anticipates that linear TV viewing may fall by up to 30% over the next five years as a result of VOD and similar services.
Ofcom says that the three video services proposed by the BBC could account for around three billion viewing hours a year by 2011, or around 3% of total viewing hours in the UK. It believes that a significant proportion of this usage is likely to represent an increase in overall use, as people watch and listen to material outside the home.
Guardian: In the case of “catch-up TV” on the internet, Ofcom took issue at the proposal to store programs for up to 13 weeks. The facility should be reduced or removed, it said. The regulator took issue with the BBC’s plans for “series stacking” – allowing viewers to download entire series of programs – stating the service could discourage investment in commercial on-demand services and is “likely to have an adverse effect” on related markets such as DVD rentals and sales. The proposals to offer audio content as free downloads may impact commercial sectors, especially classical music recordings and audio books. Again Ofcom argued that it should be excluded.
Tons more fascinating details are here, and also see the PDF linked from there.

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