Is The Outlook For Mobile Entertainment Really So Rosy?

This critical article from eMarketer takes a hard look at the recent reports circulating in the press, and their underlying methodology. For example, the Juniper Research report, currently making the rounds, forecasts that total revenues (mobile music, video, TV, gambling, gaming and adult) will exceed a whopping $77 billion by 2011. Informa Telecoms & Media, on the other hand, reckons the market will only reach $38.1 billion in 2011. Why the nearly $40 billion gap between the forecasts?

For one, both companies made some wild assumptions (Informa’s projections are built on a sharp uptake of mobile video and mobile television services, which it estimates will contribute around $8 billion toward the total). But, as the article correctly points out,

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