At the beginning of the year I joined everyone else in making predictions for 2006, and in the interest of accountability here’s the list of how each prediction panned out. Luckily, since I didn’t mention mobile social networking, I don’t have to admit that I didn’t expect the hype and effort surrounding it this year…
— My first prediction was about ringforward tones, which are “bought by people to be played on the handset of the people they call”. I didn’t really expect that to take off, but I did expect something new from the industry around ringtones, but there wasn’t anything. I don’t count the launch of the Billboard ringtone charts. UPDATE: I’ve been informed that Emotive Communications launched this service late last month — so technically in 2006 but too late in the year to make any impression, since it requires downloaded apps. The company is also going for a broader target market, with the service initially available on Skype.
Result: Inaccurate Accurate
— My second prediction was that there would be raging controversy surrounding a hot coffee style mod for a mobile game. Obviously that didn’t happen, and the mobile games market didn’t see much in the way of controversy at all, except for a minor stoush over who is bigger than who. In my defence Glu Mobile did mention in its IPO that one of the risks the company faces is that someone would put in an inappropriate locked scene without its knowledge, causing problems for the company.
Result: Inaccurate
— I predicted that Apple would release a java-enabled iPod and would start selling games, and that happened pretty soon after my prediction, if I recall correctly.
Result: Accurate
— I predicted that the focus on connecting people in developing nations to the internet would switch from computers to mobile phones. That didn’t happen exactly — there were certainly strong efforts to get cheap phones into developing nations, with the GSM Association awarding Motorola a contract to produce 6 million handsets that would retail for less than $30. However, it’s unclear how many features these phones will have, with anything more than the most basic GPRS WAP access unlikely. Still, as high-end features become standard features which become ubiquitous features, it’s only a matter of time…
Result: Semi-Accurate
— The prediction that Linux would move into mobile phones and receive a lot of press was a partial hit. Linux is moving into mobile phones, and is one of the select platforms chosen by Vodafone, but there are some issues with it…enough that there was little talk of it killing off other mobile OS’s.
Result: Semi-Accurate
— My sixth prediction was that the hype around personalization would transform into hype around customization. Although there were increasing instances of customization which allow people to arrange their mobile in the manner they see fit, there wasn’t a lot of corresponding hype.
Result: Semi-Accurate
— My seventh prediction was that there would be a lot of interchange between telecommunications companies and media companies. While there were a lot of deals there were fewer outright acquisitions than I expected, with most companies prefering to form partnerships.
Result: Inaccurate
— I predicted that the hype around mobile viruses would increase, and in fact it practically disappeared. Kudos to the industry for that.
Result: Inaccurate
— I predicted there would be a dispute over the licensing terms for patents for DMB, and this didn’t occur. There was a sort of dispute over licensing terms for some new Chinese technology, but the dispute consisted of Qualcomm saying “we wouldn’t mind if you paid some royalties on that” and China pretending not to hear.
Result: Inaccurate
— My tenth prediction was that mobile advertising would “land in a big way”, and I’m going to call this one accurate. There were a lot more advertising supported services around, as well as paid services that included advertising. There was also a lot more acceptance of the concept — in previous years people were saying “there’s no way people will allow advertising on their phone”, and now they’re saying “people are used to ad-supported content in all media, the mobile won’t be any different”.
Result: Accurate
— I then predicted that mobile TV and music would continue to be a mess…and yes, there is still a lot of debate over whether the technologies will be mass market, and if they are what business model will be successful. The take up of mobile broadcast TV in countries that have launched it can be interpreted as good or bad depending on how you view the glass — for example Korea’s S-DMB service did pretty well, but didn’t reach the end-of-year target. On the mobile music side, labels have started saying that carriers are over-charging for full-track music, although so far none have offered to give them the same licensing deals they gave Apple.
Result: Accurate
— My final prediction was that Crazy Frog would stay in the news — thank the Good Lord that didn’t happen.
Result: Inaccurate
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