2007, big year for US broadband?

If you believe some of the forecasts that have started to show up in our inbox, then 2007 will prove to be a blockbuster year, up 29.6% from 2006 in terms of total subscribers.

Pike & Fischer forecast that there will be 70 million broadband users by end of 2007, with cable operators holding a razor thin margin over DSL. Fiber networks are still in the emerging category, I guess.

They say that would add up to 58% total US household penetration, and about 74% of the total home Internet connections. Pike & Fischer has forecasted that there will be 54 million broadband subscribers in the US at the end of 2006. The 2007 boost is about 29.6%. In comparison, there were 42.9 million subscribers at the end of 2005, and the 2005-to-2006 growth was 25.6%.

Are you finding these forecasts a tad too optimistic, or do you feel that near-30% growth is quite feasible? The reason for my doubts: broadband providers has picked the low hanging fruit and this growth means that there will lower-priced additions to the overall number, and broadband providers will have to work hard to attract new users. In other words, more money will be spent on advertising and marketing!