Let’s play iPhone Rumor Bingo

Hey Wall Street, if you need help writing about iPhone, its features and projections, here is a cheat sheet of things you can mix-and-match for your next research report. And while you are at it, play some bingo too.

Talking about the Apple iPhone has become the new new thing on Wall Street. Not a day passes when one analyst or another comes up with another twist on the Apple iPhone. In fact, many of them are simply regurgitating what you might have read on various Mac blogs.


The problem is that while you view their so-called insights (rumor mongering really) with skepticism, you cannot ignore them. Because one of them just might be right. It’s almost like that Aaron Boone home run in the famous New York Yankees-Red Sox game. These days, anyone who swings is capable of hitting one out of the park.

For most of the analysts, it is a way to get in front of their institutional clients, and prove that they are relevant and have the latest information. As I have written in the past, the weeks leading up to the Steve Jobs Show, aka Macworld in San Francisco, are weeks of hectic trading and speculating in Apple stock. It is a cycle that repeats itself every year, almost without fail.

The iPhone is a good talking point for a growing number of Apple analysts, though most of them have failed to offer any concrete evidence about the device. Some of them are just totally loco!

I remember reading the $6 billion-plus in iPhone sales for fiscal 2007 projection, and laughed my head off on those silly projections. The analyst estimated a whopping 29 million phones. All that sold before September 2007 rolls around!

No one even juxtaposed it with the total net adds for say a Cingular in a given quarter – about 1.4 million – or that Cingular has a total of 58 million customers. Given that Apple is very strong on its own backyard – not so much in hot mobile markets in Asia – it is fair to assume that the bulk of its sales could come from the US. (Cingular and T-Mobile total up to about 74 million GSM customers in the USA.)

There was another report that tried to correlate the flash memory with Apple and iPhone, though it was hard to figure out how much of it was fact, and how much fiction. Rui, fed up with the bullshit has come up with iPhone Rumor Bullshit Bingo.

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