Second Life, Bigger Than WoW?

Former Second Life staffer Rueben Steiger crunches the numbers on Second Life’s growth, and figures that if the current rate of 22% monthly growth continues, there will be 3.6 million Second Lifers by July 2007. Slower growth, say 10% every month, will still bring the total number to Second Life to about 936,000 residents. GigaOM contributing writer Wagner James Au goes further and estimates that by 2008, Second Life could eclipse World of Warcraft in terms of users.

Now there are some problems with the math – it is taking a very short term trend and extrapolating it over an extended period of time, the kind of stuff which got Web 1.0 forecasters in trouble. I wonder how much the popularity and user base of WoW will grow over the same period. Interesting debate unfolding here, here and here.


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