Every pundit has to do them, so here are mine: My 12 predictions for what will occur in the mobile content space in the coming 12 months (well, 11 months and 22 days). I know what you’re thinking…how can a mere mortal foretell the future? Well, to back up my claims of clairvoyance merely check out the results from my 2005 predictions, I think they adequately support my claim that every prediction I have made below will invariably come true.
- A new service will be introduced, which I’ll dub “ringforward tones“, which will be touted as the next stage in mobile music…following ringtones and ringback tones. In the same way of Comverse’s avatars Klonies ringforward tones are bought by people to be played on the handset of the people they call. This has the same effect as ringtones of advertising to people what you are like, with the added benefit that it goes to people you know rather than nearby strangers.
- A great deal of controversy will erupt over a mobile game…or more specifically a “hot coffee” type mod for a mobile game. I’ll leave details of the mod to your able imagination, but it will cause quite a stir in parliament and other media-focused entities…Jack Thompson will insist that mobile games come with a “parental warning” sticker and be placed on the top shelves of stores.
- Apple will release a Java-enabled iPod to widespread acclaim. The media will report that “it is now possible to play games on the move” and “mobile gaming is now a reality”.
- As the news that mobile telephones are becoming increasingly common in developing nations, far more common than computers, efforts to connect populations to the internet will switch from computers to mobile handsets. There’re already some efforts like this underway, but these will increase to projects such as translating mobile services to local languages.
- Linux will move onto mobile phones with the attendent hype and arguing on the merits in various forums. Although the biggest effort will be in the OS the big success will be in niche areas (such as indigenous languages) which may not be appealing to the big companies.
- The hype about personalization will give way to hype about customization (well, this isn’t so much of a prediction but a hope). By customization I mean users adjusting the funcionality of their handset to suit themselves, such as the ability of users to arrange the menus on their phone as they see fit, as well as which network to connect to and when, the homepage for their mobile internet, and everything else to do with their mobiles. I adjust my computer to suit myself, and I’m sick of wading through other people’s preferences on mobile phones.
- There will be a lot of interchange between large media companies and large telecommunications companies. Telcos will continue to buy into media companies to ensure content and media companies will form MVNOs to extend their brand. A large media company will buy a telco as a simpler solution to forming an MVNO or partnering, but most acquisitions of telcos will be by other telcos (including cable companies and so on). While some of these acquistions/mergers will be very successful, others will go down like a lead balloon.
- The hype around mobile viruses will increase, even though there will be no real outbreaks of mobile viruses. High-end phones will begin to include virus protection (which is a good thing) but towards the end of the year a virus will have a specatular non-outbreak and certain companies will claim that the reason is because so many handsets had virus protection…sort of like Y2K.
- There will be a dispute over the licensing terms of patents required for DMB mobile broadcast TV. The problems will of course be over price, but the issue will arise when telcos determine which standard to go for. Of course, DMB isn’t the only technology that will require licenses… On this note, expect more ludicrous mobile patent disputes, along the lines of “I’ve patented the idea of searching for sports scores by pressing numbers on a keypad which are translated to words — pay me a billion dollars”.
- Mobile advertising will land in a big way. While most advertising intitiatives will be reasonable and work well, and the best won’t even be considered advertising by the user, some idiot will introduce pop-ups to the mobile internet and create huge problems for everybody concerned.
- Mobile TV and mobile music will continue to be a mess. People will continue to argue over whether consumers actually want the service on their mobile phones and whether they will pay for it, labels will continue to try and push the price upwards, piracy will continue to be blamed for less-than-stellar sales.
- Crazy Frog will stay in the news. Did you know there’s a new video? Popcorn. Anyway, it’s going to go beyond content… I’m thinking a Crazy Frog Rage incident… Or a semi-serious effort to get Crazy Frog elected president. Whatever happens, the frog is here for good…he’s the new smiley face.
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