2005: The Predictions That Were And Weren’t

[by James Pearce] At the beginning of the year I made some predictions about the mobile content market, and although 2006 isn’t quite finished it’s close enough that we can take a look at how I did. After, this will be the last day for the year content is posted officially…

–My first prediction was that mobile piracy would be a big issue in 2005. Is wasn’t a HUGE issue, but that wasn’t through lack of trying by a few players. Qpass put some effort into warning that mobile piracy of mobile content on the web is a big issue, but it didn’t generate the kind of psychotic attention that internet piracy did. Although one CEO did warn that mobile piracy would be a tsunami. The other part of the prediction was that someone would find a way to bypass the DRM used by the carriers — in the event it was MPEG LA which caused all the problems.
RESULT: Accurate

— My second prediction was of a naming war between 4G and Super 3G. I think 4G won that without even noticing that Super 3G was in the ring… although people tend to use whatever they want and phrases like “higher speed mobile internet” were common. Although Super 3G is being used in some places I haven’t seen it for a while — a quick search on Google News showed 12 reponses for Super 3G and 386 for 4G.
RESULT: Inaccurate

— My third prediction was of a much-hyped launch of a 4G service. While there was some hype around handsets that could access Wi-Fi there seemed to be a concerted effort to avoid the term 4G. In my defence, much of the unwarranted hype was around WiMax, at least according to Techdirt it was.
RESULT: Inaccurate

— My fourth prediction concerned the over-use of the term “killer-app” to describe newly-launched or soon-to-be-launched mobile applications and services. The specific applications I wrote about came to pass, there are services which allow you to post a photo or other information to a server and have people in a specific location download it, and there are services to turn your mobile into a remote control for your garage door (although admitedly, I haven’t heard of mobile phones being connected to refridgerators). However, the use of the term “killer-app” has faded into grateful obscurity.
RESULT: Semi-accurate

— My fifth prediction was that mobile content will become increasingly cross-promotional: Something that I believe has come to pass. Whether it’s a Coldplay ringtone on CSI, ringtones integrated into mobile games or the Crazy Frog going into just about everything, mobile content is rarely a single form these days — concepts are released in multiple formats and advertised within or by one another. Unfortunately, the Pepsi incident didn’t come to pass.
RESULT: Accurate (but not as much as I would have liked)

— My sixth prediction was way off-base. Although a series of mobisodes were released this year they never really took off, they were usually reported on because of the “gee-whiz, moving pictures on mobile phones” and invariably compared to 24: Conspiracy. Likewise, the prediction that a reality show filmed with mobile cameras would come to prominence failed to come to pass (I don’t count mobile content based on TV reality shows). Disappointing, really.
RESULT: Inaccurate

— My seventh prediction concerned a celebrity involved in a mobile-papparazzi rage incident. This hasn’t been reported, but there are a couple of related stories. A number of agencies were set up specifically to distribute content taken with mobile phones, the first being Scoopt+. So there are people walking around with mobile phones and keen to become papparazzi, if only they see a celebrity. The second thing started just after my predictions, and is the UK phenomenon of “Happy Slapping“, where bored losers commit felonies for no good reason. Youths basically go up and punch someone while it is filmed on a cameraphone.
RESULT: Accurate (but Inaccurate on a technicality)

— My eigth prediction was that mobile cocktails — services that are “a mix of services that change, that are frequently updated and adjusted distribution channels” — would become a huge part of the mobile offering of large brands. This didn’t happen, and I have no idea why not.
RESULT: Inaccurate

Stay tuned for my predictions of 2006, which will elucidate exactly what will happen in the world of mobile content in the coming year. This time for sure…

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