Fred Wilson Is Thinking about a Downturn


Fred Wilson is feeling blue and worrying about downturns What if that capital supply tightens? What if we have a recession in 2006 like many economists are now predicting?



That is your first mistake: This isn’t a “strong” economy

The 80’s had a strong economy, the 90’s had a real strong economy. This is a “decent” economy that is showing strong recession signs in 2006-07 time period.

Interst Rates are being leveled out. That is the real reason why they are rising.

Don’t fool yourself, the end is near

Jack Miller

Many of his concerns are signs of a strong economy. Energy and interest rate would not be going up if the economy were not strong. It is natural for home building to roll over as the industrial expansion consumes captial.

It is also natural for a mid cycle period of negative sentiment it happened in mid 80’s and mid 90’s. Not to worry!

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