(by Dorian Benkoil) Here at the Kagan VOD Summit, Derek Baine, a senior analyst with Kagan, provided some slides with compelling numbers for the growth in consumption of VOD over the next 10 years. Today, he said, there are about 20 million subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) units shown yearly, about a quarter of which are paid for separately (in addition to the subscription fee to, say, Comcast or Time-Warner Cable). By 2009 Kagan predicts 42 million units.
SVOD, Adult VOD, and VOD movies and TV today account for about $1 billion/year, he said, with movies about half that and adult content about 36%. By 2015 the market will be more than $15 billion year, his slide said.
And an assertion others in the room seemed to back: Despite the growth in home-based digital video recorders (DVRs) such as TiVOs, now accounting for about 1.6 million units, there will be much more growth in DVRs from cable and satellite providers he said. By 2015, Baine predicts 6.7 million standalone DVRs but a whopping 58.5 million provided by cable and satellite, and he says at that point more than 51 percent of homes will have DVR technology.
He also said that, “Although (satellite) cannot currently compete with cable in the VOD arena, we expect the satellite players to offer more content delivered via DVR.”
The Kagan VOD Summit coverage is sponsored by Maven Networks’ IP VOD Delivery Platform
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