Deloitte has released its “TMT Trends: Mobile & Wireless Predictions 2005” (PDF) report, and has something to say on mobile content. The report predicts that only simple services will succeed, specifically those that allow consumers to personalize their handset, such as ringtones and wallpapers. The report also condemns moves to put traditional media on the handset: “Experiments with TV and radio on mobile phones will tend to generate little value, as quality, cost and relevance hinder adoption. Console games on mobile phones will likely also prove too much of a compromise for the hardcore gamers being targeted”.
The report does give the thumbs up for convergence overall, due to the expected popularity of email. If they’re just talking about 2005, I agree that TV and radio won’t generate much revenue, but I think it will grow and become a significant part of the business. Interestingly, the report also predicts that increased segmentation will be important in the future of mobile, a move already being embraced by some Japanese ringtone operators, and of the launch of MVNOs by big media brands such as ESPN.